February 28th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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So with so, so much stimulus going into the economy and the current monetary policy in place (which equates to printing as much money as possible) Inflation is bound to show up eventually. In fact in my mind there is no way that once this economic environment lifts up high inflation does not show up right after. At that point mortgage rates will be high and monetary policy will shift into a super strict format not seen since the early 1980’s when Paul Volker was Chairmen of the Federal Reserve (hmm isn’t he currently the chairmen of the newly created “Economic Recovery Advisory Board? Someone must be getting ready to have the man that beat back inflation again when the same situation re-surfaces.)

February 27th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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In my own experience of handling short sales on the listing side and speaking with an appraiser I have come to the conclusion that I’m not sure buying a short sale really saves a buyer much at all after it’s all said and done. There are a couple reasons behind this and not all short sales are the same some buyers do get really great deals and this is all hypothetical meaning every single short sale is much different. But here are the findings that both myself and an appraiser spoke about the subject with deemed as more then likely the “deal” most buyers get on a short sale home:

February 26th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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So everyone knows the homebuilding industry is seeing a down market that’s probably the worst seen since the Great Depression (That’s actually easy to see at this point) so what happens when the new home market gets this tough? Well luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers has come out and proclaimed: “Use our mortgage company to buy one of our homes and if you lose your job within the first 24 months we’ll pay your mortgage (up to $2500/mo) for up to 6 months.” Now there are a couple things I see here on average a Toll Brothers home runs about $600,000 so a mortgage even with 20% down (making the loan amount $480,000/ on a $600,000 home purchase) would be roughly $3360/mo so the $2500 wouldn’t really cover the entire payment but hey it’s something.

February 25th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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This is a video from MSNBC and it shows that the sales rate is roughly at a 12 year low. It also highlights that 45% of the home sales occurring across the nation are in the distress stages ie: short sales, bank owned, etc. As most that read this blog already were aware of since about December up until the tax stimulus was passed demand for homes at least in Tucson was very light. However since last week (at least for me) I have seen an impressive jump back in buyer demand. Will this have a long lasting effect or just be a quick demand spur is the real question at this point. I think the Tucson real estate markets are getting (if not already) very close to a natural bottom once there is a predictable trend of foreclosure activity slowing that will mark the true beginning of the end of the downturn. Statistically speaking we have seen distress sale percentages coming down vs. overall homes for sale in Tucson but it’s too early to tell if this is going to be a predictable trend possibly in 3-6 months of these same stats repeat themselves will give us a lot more data to tell if this bottom is real. Here is the video for the existing sales numbers for across the US.

February 25th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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This report is from CNNMoney.com and it sums up the Case-Shiller Home Price index and also gives some insight into the overall (national) real estate market. Tucson, Arizona is not a part of this index however Phoenix is and Phoenix Arizona saw a 32.9% decline over the past 12 months ending November 30th. Phoenix as reported here was way, way more overheated then Tucson ever got. While the Tucson market was white hot for about 8 months Phoenix’s real estate market was white hot for over 3 years and that market (in my opinion) will not be seeing a market bottom for another 24-36 months as they still have a large oversupply of homes especially in outlying areas.

February 24th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Few neighborhoods are as large as the Continental Ranch and its sister neighborhood Continental Reserve mega neighborhoods. Combined this area has roughly 4100 homes and in the past 5 years even had some commercial real estate projects to make this area self sufficient with grocery stores, services, and even direct access to a hospital and professional services. On the whole the Continental Ranch and Reserve area is probably NW Tucson’s most demanded area to live in for those that want a master-planned community with many options for people of all ages to participate in. For starters here is some background on both areas.

February 23rd, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Here’s the mortgage rate synopsis from last Friday 2/20.

Mortgage bond prices rose last week applying slight downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. Weakness in the equity markets helped bonds recover from losses seen earlier in the week. On Thursday the Dow Jones index closed at October 2002 levels. The Federal Reserve continued buying mortgage bonds with the purchase of about $20 billion from February 12 through February 18.

Stimulus Plan and what it entails:

Tax Credit for Homebuyers

February 23rd, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Since the federal tax stimulus was passed I have seen a jump in demand for sure over the past several days. As many know within the federal tax stimulus appropriations were made to stimulate the housing markets by allowing first time home buyers to be able to receive up to $8,000 back off of their federal tax commitment by making a home purchase by 11/30/09. By running this blog and being a very active agent in the market place I can personally say a lot of buyers have been knocked off of the fence due to the legislation. In the past 7 days alone I have put 4 deals together with several other buyers actively looking to buy and a couple other buyers signing up to enlist me to represent them and start finding solutions for their housing needs.

February 21st, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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This is a very complex subject very few Realtors or loan officers can intelligently explain about how the mortgage markets work in the US. I try to learn anything and everything I can that relates to Tucson real estate so that I can serve my clients most effectively. The basis of this research I did to come across this very in depth article explaining the process was derived when a mortgage broker and I got into a differing of opinion on how things actually truly worked. (Just to let you know we were both right and the actual argument was about the actual percentage of mortgages held onto by the banks vs. the percentage sold off into the secondary markets.) This is the most current article I could find on the subject from The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and is from 1999. Being that it took me over 30 minutes to find this info (and I know what I’m looking for) I figured this maybe interesting reading for those that want to understand the marketplace that exists for mortgages in the Unites States.

February 20th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Searching the Oro Valley foreclosure home market doesn’t bring up a lot of bank owned homes currently there are 14 distress homes. The Oro Valley real estate market is probably the most stable of all the Tucson regions. A percentage of the homes have no mortgage and Oro Valley itself draws a lot of retirees who are looking for close access to a big city with a smaller city feel and ambiance. Of the 14 distress homes that are up for sale prices start at $169,900 for a 1304/sf home in Copper Creek. At the other end of the scale the highest end distress home in Oro Valley currently is $404,900 3210sf executive estate in Naranja Ranch.