August 28th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Federal Reserve Building

Share on Facebook Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker signaled that the housing market is no longer a drag on the economy making for some of the first official good news the housing depression has passed. (Or is currently passing) Lacker said that the housing market had picked up about five months ago and would no longer be a drag on economic growth, (Which I absolutely agree with and have made many posts about since about the same time frame of 5 months ago.) Lacker also went on to state “I think the economy is levelling out,” Lacker said in an interview with the Danville Register & Bee newspaper. “I think there is reason for hope.”

Federal Reserve, National Real Estate Markets, Tucson Real Estate Market

August 27th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Share on Facebook Once you as a buyer hire a Realtor to help you with selecting a home and analyzing the marketplace eventually you will find a home you want to buy, so then what happens? The next step once you as a buyer find a property you want to buy is to place an offer on the home.

What’s needed to place an offer on a home for sale?

(Generally this is what is needed)

First Time Buyers, Home Buying Process, Tucson Real Estate, Tucson Real EState Home Buying Process

August 26th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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New A.F. Sterling Home in Paloma Ridge

Share on Facebook The US Real Estate depression seems to be in its last legs and headed for growth for the first time in three years. New home sales rose by 9.6% to a 433,000 annual pace described by the Commerce Department. The 433,000 annual pace is still a very slow pace compared to historical data which averages closer to 1,000,000 units per year in “normal” times. Other interesting facts from the Commerce Department’s report was that last month was the biggest percentage increase in new home sales since February of 2005 when the real estate markets across the country were nearing their peaks.

new home builder news, New Home Statistics, Tucson builder news, Tucson new homes

August 24th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Share on Facebook Since there are a high percentage of first time buyers entering the Tucson real estate market right no, it seems appropriate to write a “Buyer Guide” for those first time buyers to figure out how things work when buying a home in Tucson Arizona. The simple steps to buying a first home in Tucson are:

#1) Contact me

#2) I will assist in getting you pre-qualified with a reputable lender

#3) We will discuss your wants/ needs with a home and see what may work best for you whether its buying a foreclosure, new home, or resale property.

First Time Buyers Buying Guide, Homebuying Guide, Tucson Real Estate

August 21st, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Share on Facebook is a video that was sent to me on Facebook and it is very interesting to see just how large and important the social media and internet marketing arena has and is becoming. Internet marketing is something I have as a Realtor taken very seriously and been involved with for the past three (going on four) years. For me as a Realtor representing people and their properties the internet is the best way in my opinion to gain their home the best exposure and for potential buyers to find me to help them with their real estate needs. Few Realtors understand how important this segment of the marketing world is. The average Realtor if he/she advertises at all (few do they rely on MLS to do everything) only advertises in the newspaper, home magazine, and possibly radio or television. The problem with that is the internet gives the buyers the most intimate and most information possible allowing your home to shine in a way none of the other media formats can compete with. So without getting to far away from the topic take the time to watch this video and see just how large the social media world and the internet have become. Once you have seen this I think it would be obvious that when selling a home you NEED a Realtor that knows how to showcase your home online and place it in front of the most viable buyers in the marketplace.

August 21st, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Share on Facebook Home sales just came out today if you read this blog regularly you shouldn’t be surprised but existing home sales were up again for the fourth straight month. Existing home sales were up 7.2% in July as first time buyers have entered the market in droves to grab their $8,000 tax credit. Also this allowed first time home sellers to buy another property and take advantage of the historically low interest rates that are presently available. The annual rate of sales now stands at 5.24 million units versus an estimate of 5 million and up from 4.89 million units in June. The past six months of real estate data has all pointed out to the national real estate markets bottoming and I personally believe this is the case in Tucson Arizona as the lower end of the market is busy with buyer demand and sales. That should trickle through the rest of the market in the next coming months.

In the bigger picture it seems like the US economy is also doing better than last year and the recession is easing or ended depending upon where you get your news from. I think the recovery will be slow and steady as this recession was easily the worst one seen since WW2. In the real estate sector the word “recession” would be putting it kindly as most in the industry would suggest the real estate sector has gone through an outright depression since the end of 2006 in real estate. Commercial real estate will still suffer for some time as the economy only slowly comes out of the recession. As already mentioned I believe the residential real estate depression in Tucson is over. As long as interest rates remain low and the general economy does not take a turn south the residential market should see steady strengthening and regain a balance between buyers and sellers. I do have reservations as to how much demand is being pushed into the market by the $8,000 tax credit and what will happen after the November 30th deadline passes, however I believe in the long term the buyer will still show up and buy without the tax credit as prices are low and affordability is as high as we have seen in decades. Also in my opinion high quality real estate “deals” are getting harder to come by and the active inventory in Tucson continues to shrink.

Home Sale Stats, Tucson Home Selling Statistics

August 20th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Share on Facebook In doing research for this blog it occurred to me that for first time home buyers this is probably a dream market to be buying into. Home prices have dropped roughly 40% from their all time 2005 early 2006 highs here in Tucson, mortgage rates are averaging currently 5.15% (for a 30 year fixed mortgage), and the Federal Government is willing to throw in up to an $8,000 tax credit that can even be used on the actual home purchase. All this would seem like the dream market for first time homebuyers in Tucson and it’s really no wonder many are entering the market right now to buy. Other factors that make this current real estate market very attractive to first time buyers; highest home affordability in decades, sellers willing to do what it takes to make a sale including banks that hold foreclosures, and new home builders who also need to move inventory.

Where should the first time buyer concentrate to get the most for the money?

I think first time buyers looking for maximum value should concentrate on one of two types of sales; either the foreclosures market or the new home market. The reason for this is simple these two types of sellers have to sell they can’t reason with a low offer by saying; “This offer is too low we can just stay put another year or two and try to sell then when the market is better.” like a regular home seller can. The bank(s) holding a foreclosure just wants to sell it and get it out of their “bad loan” portfolio before the home gets vandalized or the market falls further costing the bank additional monies. The banks will not give any home away believe me they want to sell each home for its maximum value, but if you as a buyer employ a Realtor with experience and skill in dealing with foreclosure properties and their corporate owners (IE: Banks such as Bank of America, Chase, Wells Fargo, etc) the odds of you getting a great deal increase exponentially. As a buyer you should be able to see the best foreclosure deals in the area you want to buy and then your agent should lead the negotiation efforts securing you as the buyer a great price and terms on the property. Having a great Realtor to identify properties, negotiate, and avoid potential pitfalls is the difference here for you as a buyer because the foreclosure market is very specialized and works differently then when buying from regular individual home sellers. As an experienced and highly skilled Realtor myself that represents many foreclosure buyers it is not uncommon AT ALL for my clients to be able to get 15%-25% off what I believe the foreclosure property would be worth if it was slightly fixed up and not a foreclosure. This is what you as a first time buyer(or any buyer really) should also be trying to do, get into a positive equity position right off the bat even if that positive equity position is assumed after some repairs are completed.

The other option if you don’t want to deal with some cosmetic (or worse) repairs is the new home marketplace. In Tucson the new home builders need to move product badly. They are doing much better than the end of last year however they are still in need of new sales. The Tucson builders also cannot afford to sit on finished inventory as the interest payments and insurance eat into already razor thin (if any) profit margins. Look to make a buy on a finished or almost finished spec (also called inventory) home. In most situations if you have a good Realtor who understands the new home builders and their negotiation techniques you will find that the bargains are there for the taking and in many cases you can steal a brand new home for roughly a few percent more then what the same type of home that was a foreclosure and needed repairs would be able to be purchased at. If you can negotiate a deal like that then the new home is the only viable option since everything is new and no repairs would be needed whereas the foreclosure would need money invested right away 9 out of 10 times. For those not thinking about it in my mind any time you can buy a new home for within 95%-90% of what a foreclosure property could be purchased at its (again in my opinion) the new home is a better buy then the foreclosure property in need of repairs.

If you are a first time buyer and would like help to get things going on a home purchase contact me via email or phone and I will assist you in taking the proper steps. Generally speaking I will put you in touch with a lender who specializes in first time buyers to get you pre-qualified. After that we will discuss your home buying options and what type(s) of homes may work best, as well as how to best negotiate your offer and get the best deals available in the real estate marketplace.

August 19th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Share on Facebook US Housing starts saw a 1% decrease in starts as the new real estate markets took a little bit of a break from the surge seen in new building starts in June and May. New Home Single Family starts were still up 1.7% as the new home builders are starting to feel the real estate depression of the past 3 years subside from the downright impossible business conditions from a year ago. Since the single family home segment is mostly what we deal with on this blog we will stick with that out of this report, the past couple of months new home single family starts had been surging up 17.8% in June and overall housing starts were up 15% in May.

I believe the new home industry will continue to feel the easing of the real estate depression of 2006-2009. As already described the real estate markets were an impossible place to run a homebuilder business from October 2008 until February 2009. Any builder that had to run their business in that distressed new home market would soon be out of business after a short amount of time as the new home markets across the nation were mostly locked up and demand was nowhere to be seen most of the new builders had to make major changes to keep their business intact. I am happy to say those dismal economic conditions have passed and probably not coming back for the near future. Builders are seeing a spur in demand and profit margins will ever so slowly come back as the foreclosure crisis and builder incentives are reduced over the next 6 months.

New Home housing starts more than likely will keep at the current levels (About 550k-600k annual homes built) for the next several months as a strong real estate bottom is formed. The Federal Government can spur demand if they extend the $8,000 tax credit but that remains to be seen as the deadline is now about 100 days away. From the current 573,000 annual permit level we are at today we should in 2010 start a steady rise into the high 600k- 700k for new homes being built as the foreclosure crisis ends, and the bottom of the real estate depression is passed. At the current mid to high 500k level new homes are at a historical bottom as in the 1991 recession. When the 1991 recession ended new homes bottomed in this same range. Since then the USA has added tens of millions in population and homes are much more affordable than they were in 1991 from an affordability standpoint.

August 16th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Share on Facebook on Lawrence Yun:

Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. He writes regular columns on real estate market trends, creates NAR’s forecasts, and participates in many economic forecasting panels, including Blue Chip and the Harvard University Industrial Economist Council. He regularly appears on CNBC, BBC, and Bloomberg TV and is a frequent speaker at Real Estate conferences throughout the United States. USA Today recently listed him among the top 10 economic forecasters in the country.

Dr. Yun has been with NAR since 2000. Prior to that, he worked as an economic consultant to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and the U.S. Department of Education. While a research associate at the University of Maryland for three years, Yun developed the graduate economics curriculum for and taught free market economics in the former Soviet Union as that country transitioned from communism to a free-market system.

Dr. Yun received his undergraduate degree from Purdue University and earned his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland at College Park

August 15th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Share on Facebook CNN Money confirmed a prediction I wrote about here at the end of 2008 for new real estate trends in America, here is the link to the CNN Article: Blog Post:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/07/real_estate/shrinking_home/?postversion=2009081112

The article titled: The incredible shrinking home

The size of newly built homes fell in 2008 for the first time in almost 15 years. Is the McMansion era on the wane?

This article talks about how for the first time in almost 15 years consumer trends are changing and homebuyers are shunning the larger homes that have been the norm for half a generation. New homes that are being build have shrunk by 7% according to CNN Money. Here is an excerpt from a blog post I published here on www.SellingTucsonRealEstate.com/blog  alomst 8 months ago:

-Consumer trends of smaller more efficient homes will continue. Buyers are shunning the “McMansions” and instead buying the smaller more efficient homes with better finishes. This trend I see continuing for many years to come.

This was published in 12/29/09

Here is the link to the entire article titled: “What I Think 2009 Will Bring To Tucson Real Estate”

http://www.sellingtucsonrealestate.com/blog/what-i-think-2009-will-bring-to-the-tucson-housing-market/

Some Interesting Facts About The New Shrinking Home Trend In America:

- Median square footage of newly built homes fell to 2,065 square feet

-Baby Boomers retiring to smaller more manageable homes experts believe is also an influencing factor to this new trend in home building here are some others:

- Tight credit for big mortgages: Jumbo loans needed to pay for these types of houses have been harder to get and more expensive. That would discourage building in this category.

-Energy costs: When the price of oil rose to more than $147 a barrel in July 2008, it drove up all the costs of homeownership. Heating and cooling costs soared, but so did electricity costs. And bigger houses have more lights and appliances. Energy costs also contributed to price increases on building materials, making bigger homes that much more expensive to construct.

- Affordability: That drives everything, Melman said. People tend to buy as much home as they can comfortably afford and, with the economy in turmoil, they simply don’t feel at ease spending today.