February 24th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Few neighborhoods are as large as the Continental Ranch and its sister neighborhood Continental Reserve mega neighborhoods. Combined this area has roughly 4100 homes and in the past 5 years even had some commercial real estate projects to make this area self sufficient with grocery stores, services, and even direct access to a hospital and professional services. On the whole the Continental Ranch and Reserve area is probably NW Tucson’s most demanded area to live in for those that want a master-planned community with many options for people of all ages to participate in. For starters here is some background on both areas.

Continental Ranch (located north of Cortaro, west of Silverbell to the Santa Cruz River and as north as Twin Peaks Road) was started with monies lent from Charles Keating who was eventually was caught up in the S&L crisis. Even with that being all discovered Continental Ranch was a natural area for growth as it was on the NW which is made it closer to Phoenix and on land that was reasonably easy to develop and had direct access to I-10 and interior NW Tucson. Development was started in the 1980’s and just in the past 6 months or so reached about maximum build out with the completion of Richmond American’s community within Continental Ranch. Homes in Continental Ranch number roughly 3100 homes and sized range from as small as 900sf to in excess of 3000sf one and two story homes alike.

Continental Reserve is essentially the second phase of Continental Ranch smaller in size but polished with a more “high end” feel Continental Reserve has a much more prevalent contemporary style and design then the homes in Continental Ranch. Continental Reserve has roughly 1000 homes within it and most of the homes are less then 5 years old as Continental Reserve was started in the early 2000’s. Most homes were developed during the Arizona real estate boom and on the most part are larger in size and higher in features and upgrades as the boom allowed for home builders to offer more included features to satisfy the demand for higher end properties that were built during the boom.

So now that we have covered that what’s actually going on in the Continental Ranch/ Reserve market?

Here’s the breakdown:

-135 Homes on the market

-Average Home Price of a home on the market: $242,859

-Average dollar per square foot for a home listed for sale: $127.66/sf

-Average Days on market: 109

Here’s the SOLD Home stats (These are the ones that actually matter in my mind)

-Since 10/1/08 there have been 83 sales

-Average Sale Price: $204,898

-Average sold dollar per square foot: $112.45

-Average days on market for a sold home: 80

-Ask to Bid Price differential: 96.53% Or on average a Continental Ranch home sells for 3.47% less then the list price.

Ok so what does that mean as far as a market recap? Well to me it means that there is a lot of inventory within the Continental Ranch and Reserve area. The demand is there but only for the mostly “bargains” in the market. The majority of Continental Ranch and almost all of Continental Reserve would be called a move up market meaning first time buyers sell their starter home and then move to Continental Ranch/Reserve for a little bit bigger nicer home. That “move-up market” right now (has been for the past 24 months) is struggling the most, as those first time sellers are having a hard time competing with the foreclosure homes. So to sum it up I think the demand is currently very slow for Continental Ranch and Reserve however if a seller wants to sell they can (there still is a market) but sellers will need to price very accordingly (leaving emotion at the door) and hiring a Realtor who understand the Continental Ranch and Reserve market and can get your home the “marketing push” it will need to produce buyers ready, willing, and able to make the purchase.