October 28th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Share on Facebook Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller report came out today and showed home prices are on the raise again as prices were up 1.2% from July ’09 to August ’09 showing strength in the real estate markets across the nation. This marks the 4^th straight month of gains. Many experts believe a lot of the gain is derived from the first time buyer tax credit as it is pushing extra demand into most of the nations markets. Experts anticipated a price increase of 0.7% since Augusts’ numbers came in quite a bit higher than that  it makes the case that real estate markets across the USA are even stronger than most experts realize.

The latest monthly price increase helped the yearly averages from the Case-Shiller report. On the year the 20 city index is down 11.3%. In the latest report for August the only city that was still declining was Cleveland Ohio. All other cities including Phoenix, AZ which is part of the 20 Case-Shiller cities measured saw gains.

In Tucson (which is not measured in this report) sales have been up and I believe home prices should start to see increases shortly. In the MLS reports that are reported by the association Tucson is still in decline however the declines have been slowing dramatically all summer. My conclusion is that with the $8k first time tax credit about to be extended through 2010 the Tucson market should be fully recovered and reasonably healthy by the summer of 2010. Looking at all the data I think Tucson saw the bottom of the housing market between April and June of this year. While nothing is guaranteed I think most Realtors and Tucson housing experts would say the housing market this year is in a better and healthier state since the end of 2005 when prices started to cave. Tucson is never going to be a “mega-housing” area compared with other western cities such as Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Las Angeles however the market here should be a better than average place for buyers to get a lot for the money and see reasonable appreciation rates.

Due to the $8k tax credit the vast majority of homes sales in Tucson are in the first time buyer price range and regions of the city. This while tough for higher end sellers to stomach right now is what is needed so that the housing stocks and owner profiles will strengthen from the weak owner stock that caused the downturn. As the foreclosures continue to be absorbed and first time sellers buy move-up properties it will induce the ladder effect that is natural for real estate.

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Exsisting home sales, tucson real estate statistics