June 6th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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In doing some statistics for what sellers on average are accepting for offers it was interesting to follow the list vs. sell price of homes in Tucson over the past 4 years. From 2005 until 2009 (I ran the stats over the same time span to make them as accurate as possible the time frame was from 1/1/200*- 6/5/200*) the final list vs. sale differential has grown pretty sizably as buyers have taken full control of the marketplace. The help explain it better this percentage is what “on average” the final sales price was in relation to the list price before the home went under contract. So homes that were over priced to start with then reduced in price to come in at market price then sell are only counted from where they were priced just before going under contract. In addition keep in mind only homes that are priced correctly get the traffic (buyers coming to see the home) to facilitate a home sale. So with that being said here are the statistics. (Again keep in mind this is a percentage of the list price so if a home was listed at $100,000 and the “on average” list vs. sell percentage is 90% then on average the $100,000 home sells for $90,000.)

List Price vs. Sell Price Differential In Tucson Arizona

2009: 94.01%

2008: 94.76%

2007: 95.80%

2006: 97.34%

2005: 98.62%

You can see that during the super hot market of 2005 sellers were getting very close to full list price. Here’s another interesting point most sellers ALWAYS over value their home. They always want to try the highest list price that could ever possibly happen (at least initially). Obviously the reason is simple they don’t want to leave money on the table but how it relates to this is during the 2005 hot sellers market you never saw price decreases they just rarely happened. Today the same sellers try pricing at the top of the market only too high reduce after 30-60 days, reduce again after 90-120 days and then get 94.01% of THAT final list price. Unfortunately I can’t pull the stats as how high the discount is from initial average list price to the final sales price sellers are getting and then backtrack it from 2005 but the numbers would be brutal to compare 2005 to today from the seller’s point of view.

So what should you do with these numbers? Well numbers are just numbers and every home and situation is completely different but its worth looking at that on average you as a buyer should be able to negotiate 6% off of the list price on a home in Tucson right now. Now again keep in mind this is on average every home at the end of the day sells for its “market price” and if a home is listed “under market” look for a bidding war or a sales price to be very close if not above the list price EVEN IN TODAYS MARKET! Right now specifically in the lower price ranges there are more buyers combing the market since the days of the boom however all of them are looking to buy homes in Tucson for pennies on the dollar and sellers should be prepared on how to negotiate with them and make a deal happen to enable them to sell their home.