November 3rd, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Share on Facebook For those people that read this blog that know me you know I like to look at stats and real numbers vs. just making assessments without seeing facts. In looking at the numbers from earlier this year the US housing markets is recovering pretty seriously and in a way I think even few Realtors and other experts understand. Here are the statistics that I found. Now there is no guarantee the real estate markets will not take another dip however my feeling is the worst is for sure behind the markets. In the early summer and during the summer I wrote many blog posts signaling the end of the real estate depression that had been so “normal” for the past 3 years. The numbers also agree with this assessment and show since January the market has been getting better and since the late spring the markets across the US have even in many cases started seeing price increases! With that being said here is a summary of the stats showing where the US real estate market has come from:

-24% Gain in existing home sales since January 2009

-22% Increase in new home purchases

-40% Rise in single family housing starts

-1% Upturn in prices in the Case-Shiller 20 city index in August

-30 yr mortgage rates currently at 5% close to a multi-decade low

-29% share of distressed* home sales in September ‘09 from a 51% share in March ‘09. *Foreclosed or sold below mortgage value.

-45% is the current share of first time buyers buying the inventory of homes for sale. The ’07-’08 average was roughly 40% showing the first time buyer tax credit is pushing extra buyers into the market as it was intended.

-Existing Homes Inventory now stands at 7.8 months! At the peak of the downturn it was 11.3 months worth of inventory. (April ’08)

-New Homes inventory now stands at 7.5 months worth of supply down sharply from the 12.4 months of supply in January 2009.

Government Intervention is also getting more intensive with the plans of the following:

-$8,000 first time buyer tax credit to be extended until April of 2010.

-Provisions in this new extension of the tax credit to also allow move up buyers to receive up to $6,500 in tax credits for buying a larger/ new home.

- Tax incentive for builders to apply losses to previous tax returns and get additional monies back to use to stabilize their business and/or buy new lots start new developments.

As one can see these incentives and stats show that the US real estate markets are a much different place then they were in January of 2009 when it looked like the industry was on its deathbed.  In Tucson we have seen inventory as low as the very low 6000’s from a high of over 10,000 in January of ’08. More homes are selling here in Tucson and the market as a whole is pretty stabilized compared with a short 12-24 months ago when homes we not selling anywhere as briskly as currently. As previously mentioned in blog posts about the current state of the market I am somewhat concerned what will happen as/when the Federal Government exits the real estate markets and cuts off or way back on incentives. However with that being said the Tucson market should be reasonably well off as it has seemed to do a 180 degree turn over the past 12 months. By April 30^th, 2010 when the extended first time buyer credit expries the Tucson market should even be better than it is right now and should be fine.

If you have comments about the Tucson or national real estate market feel free to leave a comment below in the box marker “leave a reply”. Share

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