October 14th, 2009 by Michael Oliver

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Market Recap: By Michael Oliver

The Tucson real estate market is the hottest I have seen in about 3 or 4 years. It’s nothing like the boom years of 2005 and 2004, where I literally had a list of people wanting to buy homes, waiting for me to call them with something they could get a contract on. Today is much different, but it’s still not a bad market. Active listings are barely over 6000 (6008 to be exact) and should fall more as the final wave of first-time buyers eager to cash in on the $8,000 tax credit surfaces. Even on the high end, it seems like homes are moving better than previously. The zip code of 85718, Tucson’s most expensive and exclusive, saw 40 closed sales in September — the most going back quite a while. By the numbers, Oro Valley is still a little bit slow as two of the currently slowest selling zip codes are located in Oro Valley.

As already mentioned in previous blog posts and market recaps, the $8,000 tax credit is set to expire on November 30th, 2009 and there is a lot of discussion by Realtors and real estate experts as to how much this is going to dent the “decent” real estate market that we currently have in most areas. My guess is that it will to bring sales down by close to 10% from where they were this summer by next summer (summer of 2010). The market will be a little bit slower than in 2009 but actually in much better shape. Thousands of foreclosures and distress properties were absorbed this year, mostly due to the first-time buyer demand the tax credit encouraged. Time will tell if this assessment is correct, however, going through statistics and seeing others’ opinions, I feel the $8k tax credit is currently pushing about 10% additional demand into the real estate markets in Tucson. Once the tax credit expires, the demand should also be pulled back. Once again, the bottom of the Tucson real estate market was most likely reached in the spring, and 2010 over 2009 real estate stats should see an increase in home prices in Tucson.