Tucson Market Statistics - April 2008
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| Apr 07 | Apr 08 | % change | ||||
| Home Sales Volume | $367,164,710 | $246,878,039 |  32.76% | |||
| Home Sales Units |
1318 | 973 | 26.17% |
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| Average Sales Price |
$278,577 | $253,729 | 8.91% |
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| Median Sales Price |
$224,921 | $195,000 | 13.30% |
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| Pending Contracts* | 1217 | 1547 |  27.11% |
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| Active Listings |
10,387 | 8808 | 15.20% |
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| New Listings |
3085 | 2441 | 20.87% |
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| Average Days on Market |
65 | 78 | 20.00% |
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*Has not yet closed escrow. | ||||||
| Information provided by Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service | ||||||
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Additional information and a complete run down of the Tucson real estate market is available HERE. This MLS report is sent to all Realtors in Tucson, and is complete with color graphs and charts to help potential clients get a better understanding of the underlying real estate market conditions. Michael assists potential clients in this manner with NO COST to them! | ||||||
| ARCHIVED STATISTICS | ||||||
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Market Recap: By Michael Oliver
On paper, the real estate market in Tucson looks bad. Well, on paper, it is! However, activity is way up, listings are down, and new listings are down. These are the telltale signs of a market bottoming out. There is no guarantee the Tucson area will see strength in prices for a while, but the number of listings on a steady downtrend tells me the bottom is being found. (We still need this number to be around the 5000's and pending contracts up over 27%.) I have seen quite an increase in activity on my own listings since the beginning of April over what it has been for a while. There are more phone calls coming in regarding my listings. It's taking less time for them to go under contract. There is now more general interest from buyers than in months past. In my opinion, buyers may be seeing the lowest prices they are going to see in Tucson for a while. That "bottom" may not be today, but I do expect Tucson to touch it over the next 2-3 months. In 6-8 months from that point, most people will realize that the real estate market in Tucson is gaining strength and is not as soft as it had been for the previous two and a half years. So, what opportunities are there now?
BUYING OPORTUNITIES: I think buyers in all price ranges and areas are free to make a purchase as all areas have come down significantly over the past 2 plus years. Areas such as Sahuarita and Vail have seen prices fall at least 20%-25%, and the best areas -- the Foothills, and Oro Valley -- have seen their homes fall in price roughly 15%. Across the Tucson valley, all areas are depressed compared to 2005 levels. I do think some of the best deals for first time buyers continue to be found in Sahuarita. The homes you can get for the price are very hard to beat. We're talking brand new homes from the 150's! Not many areas can compete with that. If you are looking for "deals" on the high end, concentrate on short sales and bank owned (REO) properties.
SELLERS: Selling a home in this current marketplace is downright tough, to say the least. As all my seller clients know, I do not guarantee sales. However, if you want to almost ensure a sale, you should be pricing your home at the lowest possible price you're willing to accept. Then do your best to make that home a showplace. Anything else will most likely miss the market and the buyers in it. From all the people I talk to and the stats I'm constantly reading, many experts view this current downturn in real estate as comparable to the real estate markets during the GREAT DEPRESSION -- at least for sellers. So keep this in mind when thinking you want to test a price that the numbers suggest is not possible. If you can afford to buy your new home while renting your current home (even at a loss) rather than selling it, that may be your best strategy to take advantage of the deals in the market. Otherwise, look to 2010 or 2011 to be the year that a truly balanced market will be available in which to sell your home.
NEW HOME DEALS: As I have talked about on the blog, several new homebuilders are giving drop bottom deals and making things happen to sell inventory. These builders include DR Horton and Meritage Homes. These two builders are, just for starters, offering low prices in most communities. In addition, for first time buyers, they are offering "$500 moves you in" promotions in which they are covering your down payment and closing costs. Other incentives can be had if negotiated properly. In my experience, Pulte Homes also seems to be doing a decent job with their incentives and prices. Builders that have been offering sub-par incentive packages and prices, in my opinion, include KB Home and some of the smaller semi-custom builders around town. I think those smaller builders' profit margins are just not there to be able to compete with national homebuilders, many of which are Fortune 500 companies with billions of dollars in market share.
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