Tucson Market Statistics - January 2008
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| Jan 07 | Jan 08 | % change | |
| Home Sales Volume | $356,449,641 | $158,272,006 |  38.28% |
| Home Sales Units |
941 | 594 | 36.88% |
| Average Sales Price |
$272,529 | $266,450 | 2.23% |
| Median Sales Price |
$220,365 | 203,500 | 7.65% |
| Pending Contracts | 863 | 1079 |  25.03% |
| Active Listings |
9742 | 9168 | 5.89% |
| New Listings |
3499 | 3744 | 7% |
| Average Days on Market |
68 | 83 | 22.1% |
| Information provided by Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service | |||
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If you would like more detailed statistics, comprehensive PDF documents produced by the Tucson Association of Realtors/MLS is available for viewing HERE | |||
| ARCHIVED STATISTICS | |||
Market Recap: By Michael Oliver
2007 was a tough year for the Tucson real estate marketplace. No doubt about it, no one could have predicted how severe the conditions would become. Overbuilding, a saturated market, and the mortgage meltdown all threw loops for sellers and buyers trying to complete transactions throughout the year. The year began as one of the strongest years ever recorded in Tucson, but everyone knew the real estate market was going to be difficult in 2007. However, even the most dire of predictions was still a little optimistic. I distinctly remember Angelo Mozilo, CEO of Countrywide Financial Corporation, saying at the end of 2006 on CNBC, that “all 12 months” of 2007 were going to be horrible, but that 2008 was going to be off the charts. He said all the over-speculation and other issues would subside, and that his business would then be back on track and very healthy. He founded Countrywide Home Loans and has been its helm for roughly 50 years. It appeared to him that this was just another cycle, similar to many others that have occurred during his time. True, anyone who knows anything about the real estate business knows it’s a boom and bust (“cyclical” is the word most like) business. We all knew the “bust” was going to hit full force in 2007. BUT no one -- and I mean no one -- could have expected the real estate markets to start locking up on the finance side plus over-speculation and over-supply (a problem still with us), and to just linger this long. Throw in the fact that Tucson has many homebuilders in town sitting on land and homes that HAVE to be sold, and it was a strong shot to the real estate balloon. Even Mr. Mozilo would have been surprised to find that Countrywide would, in 11 short months, have rumors swirling all over Wall Street that they were about to be go bankrupt and be purchased by Bank of America. To put it into real scale, Countrywide’s stock was in the high $40/share range at the beginning of the 2007. By November/December of 2007 the price was hovering in the $5/share range. Talk about a bad year! To be fair to Angelo, I really felt he was the only CEO who was telling the absolute truth regarding what he knew of the situation and was not just giving lip service to the public, like so many others do regularly.
Let’s be happy that 2007 has come and gone, at least in the real estate world. I still feel that most residential property is selling at a heavy discount. I see bank-owned properties and builder spec homes that are literally priced at or below the cost to develop/build the property. Makes it hard, when I see that, to say prices are going to hold the line of decline that they have for the past 18-24 months and continue to fall drastically. Don’t take this the wrong way, though. Prices can still decline and prices MAY NOT rebound for a while, if ever! Now that may be just ridiculously overstating it. There is just no universal rule that real estate prices ALWAYS go up, as I used to hear weekly from 2003-2005. It’s very hard to predict how the real estate market will do over the next year. It’s about the same as predicting the stock market -- it’s just not possible. What I can do is report what I hear and see, and what the stats “suggest” (key word). From what I hear, sellers are getting beyond desperate. I see some homes priced below what it cost to build, and the stats say things are improving but not healthy yet. Pending contracts are up, active Listings are down, and interest rates are much lower then even six months ago. That screams BUY to me. Maybe I’m wrong and time will tell, but honestly, when the stats start showing prices rebounding, it will be mostly too late to take advantage of the truly great deals. Now, just in case those of you who are reading this think, “He’s just like every other Realtor -- always trying to sell me something,” I’d like to say that’s not true. I tell all my sellers that this is not a good market to sell in, and I turn down 2-4 listings a month of sellers who just are not realistic about what their properties are worth or “just want to test the market.” The only sellers I really take on are those that truly need to sell due to divorce, job transfer, etc., and those who want to sell and buy a larger, more expensive home (move up). The move up does make financial sense. You sell for 10% less than you would LIKE to sell for, but buy the larger home and get the same discount on the buy (if not more, depending how well I can negotiate and how badly you want that certain house).
If you are even entertaining the idea of purchasing a home, you should consider stepping up to the plate in the next 6 months. After that, I really think the worst will be behind us here in Tucson, which means the really good deals will start to be less attractive. If you’re looking to sell and buy a new home, that would be a good move only if you’re buying up not down. And in a perfect world, renting your current home and buying a new one would be the optimum situation while allowing the market to correct. However, many people are not comfortable with that arrangement because it requires the ability to weather the financial ups and downs associated with ownership of a rental property.
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